Based on the latest results and each nation's strength (Elo rating, updated throughout the tournament), we simulate the remaining matches thousands of times to predict the knockout-stage qualifiers, the bracket and the champion.
Data updated: GMT
* The third-place match is not part of the prediction.
Group matches played: 72 ／ Simulation runs: 4,000 ／Computed (GMT): 19/07/2026, 23:02
How the pre-tournament forecast — reconstructed with Elo ratings as of 2026-06-04, just before kickoff — compares with what actually happened.
| Rank | Team | Pre-tournament title odds | Actual result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 28.9% | 🏆 Champions |
| 2 | Argentina | 19% | Runners-up |
| 3 | France | 14.6% | 4th |
| 4 | England | 7% | 3rd |
| 5 | Portugal | 4.2% | Round of 16 |
| 6 | Brazil | 4% | Round of 16 |
| 7 | Colombia | 3.8% | Round of 16 |
| 8 | Netherlands | 2.5% | Round of 32 |
| 9 | Ecuador | 2.1% | Round of 32 |
| 10 | Germany | 1.7% | Round of 32 |
| 14 | Japan(reference) | 1.3% | Round of 32 |
Method: Elo ratings as of 2026-06-04 (Wayback Machine archive) fed into the same Monte Carlo engine as this page, over 100,000 simulations. No real-time pre-tournament run was stored, so this is a reconstruction under identical conditions.
Tournament format
48 teams play a group stage in 12 groups (A–L). The top two of each group (24 teams) plus the eight best third-placed teams advance to the knockout stage (Round of 32).
Tie-breakers (equal points)
① Points → ② head-to-head among the tied teams (points → goal difference → goals scored) → ③ overall goal difference → ④ overall goals scored → ⑤ fair play → ⑥ FIFA ranking. From 2026, head-to-head takes priority.
Third-placed team pairings
The best 8 of the 12 third-placed teams advance. The pairings depend on which groups they come from; the regulations (Annex C) define 495 possible allocations, and this tool implements all of them.
Data used
Scores of finished matches (football-wire.com / football-data.org) and each nation's strength value, the Elo rating (eloratings.net).
What is the Elo rating?
A single number expressing each nation's strength, based on results, opponent strength and match importance — higher is stronger. It is updated after every match, also during the World Cup, so the prediction evolves as the tournament progresses.
Prediction method
The remaining matches are simulated thousands of times (Monte Carlo method). Goals are generated probabilistically match by match, computing group standings, third-place qualification and the whole knockout stage.
What the % means
How often a team reached that round across thousands of simulation runs. More runs make the numbers more stable.
* A statistical forecast only — results are not guaranteed.
| Team | Champ | Final | SF | QF | R16 | Adv. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSpain | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| JArgentina | · | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| ACzechia | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| ASouth Korea | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| AMexico | · | · | · | · | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| ASouth Africa | · | · | · | · | · | 100.0 |
| BBosnia | · | · | · | · | · | 100.0 |
| BCanada | · | · | · | · | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| BQatar | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| BSwitzerland | · | · | · | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| CBrazil | · | · | · | · | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| CHaiti | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| CMorocco | · | · | · | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| CScotland | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| DAustralia | · | · | · | · | · | 100.0 |
| DParaguay | · | · | · | · | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Ratings: World Football Elo Ratings (eloratings.net) / Results: football-data.org / Schedule: football-wire.com
* This forecast is a Monte Carlo simulation based on Elo ratings, provided for reference only. It does not guarantee match results.
